An objective of the WP is to develop and evaluate an integrated modeling system for airborne pollen and allergen concentrations in Europe, as well as their interactions with conventional air pollutants. The model will be evaluated and applied to (i) operational forecasting of pollen and allergen, and to (ii) study of the climate-change impact on pollen and allergen production, release and distribution – for past and projected into the future climate.
Reflecting the structure of the WP objectives, it will consist of these activities: Development of an integrated modeling system capable of short-term forecasting of the pollen and allergen emission and distribution.
That major effort is split to two activities: Extension of the existing SILAM system to olive and grass taxa, preparation of the corresponding parameterizations following the template of birch pollen in SILAM. This activity will end up with the system incorporating: (i) a map of the main allergenic pollen vegetation types over Europe, (ii) a unified phenological model of the timing of flowering and (iii) forecasting models for the amount of pollen and progress of pollen release. Introduction of the allergen as an additional pollutant, parameterization of corresponding release, transport and removal processes.
The allergen release from the plants and/or pollen grains will be parameterized taking into account the most-important processes affecting it: meteorological conditions, concentrations of chemical pollutants, etc. These parameterizations will heavily rely on results of the WP 5. Application of the developed integrated model to historical data (several decades). Revealing the stochastic and systematic patterns of the distributions, possible climate signals and assessment of the model ability to reproduce them in the varying climate conditions. Set up the trial forecasting of allergen and pollen distribution (2-7 days) over Europe. The bulk of work will be comprised in FMI, which will establish the modeling centre of the project and provide the necessary facilities and tools for carrying out the above activities and for modeling and forecasting support of other WPs. The other partners will participate in the model development and evaluation and, in case of Siauliai University, also performing the model simulations for the selected cases.
The allergen forecasts produced in the model will be compared with pollen counts. If the allergen concentrations and pollen counts differ significantly, the forecast model might need to be improved.